Published by the Congressional Budget Office:

Robert Arnold, Jeanne De Sa, Tim Gronniger,
Allison Percy, et al.

The Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues (50 pages) was published by the Congressional Budget Office. The research focuses on the potential for, and possible economic effects of, a pandemic of avian flu—although many of the policy issues that avian flu raises apply also to pandemics of other types of influenza. The paper provides background on the effects of a potential avian flu pandemic, gives very rough estimates of the economic effects of two possible scenarios, and discusses policy options related to the preparedness of the United States for such an outbreak.